The International Monetary Fund believes that the fears of Chinese collapse are overblown. GMO estimates that EM stocks (4.6% real/year) and bonds (2.8% real/year) will be the two highest-returning asset classes over the next five-to-seven years.
Josh Brown, writing as The Reformed Broker, raises the prospect of that emerging markets may well have bottomed. Research Affiliates is more optimistic, suggesting that EM stocks are priced to return 7.9% a year with high volatility, about 1.1% in the US and 5.3% in the other developed markets. Bill Bernstein (auto-launch video, sorry), an endlessly remarkable soul, allows “They are cheap; they are not good and cheap …
GMO – pretty much zero, real, with the prospect of real ugliness after the US election. As you look at your portfolio, ask yourself the simple questions: what was I that there? Rowe Price’s retirement date funds to see how really careful folks think you should be invested.
Optimists note that we’re now in the best six months of the year for stocks, and they anticipate healthy gains.
none of the problems underlying the third quarter decline have changed.
Adding fuel to the fire, Rob Arnott’s group – Research Affiliates – has entered the debate.
They are, mildly put, not optimistic about US stocks. ” If you lost 3%, imagine an additional 6% and shrug, then fine.
That may point toward smaller companies, smaller markets and a domestic orientation. We commend Driehaus Emerging Markets Small Cap Growth (DRESX), Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX and Matthews Asia Strategic Income (MAINX) to you.